Russian hands over Europe
Reflectors are public facing north Africa and the Far East after a bloody uprising against Gaddafi and the nuclear accident in Japan. In Libya, the French had once again overestimated their power and America is apparently against his will, was forced to step into the world's policeman costume and start another war. While the forces competing over who will help the suffering people of Libya, the Japanese were mainly extracted from the mud alone. Behind the scenes of global defeat, someone still could happily start to rub your hands and wait for his new circumstances fill coffers. This one is Russia.
Superficially Russia had much to do with these events. Although they publicly protest against the action in Libya, as a permanent member of the Security Council still have not put a veto on which they are entitled. Seemingly illogical move of Russian diplomacy has a much deeper and more substantial background. Specifically, the Russian public outcry had to stop the action, but to protect their interests if the action fails and Gaddafi is not destroyed. Realistically Moscow with political and economic point of view corresponds to instability in North Africa.
World instability for Russia's stability
Russia through the Nord Stream pipeline through Ukraine to meet a third of Europe's gas needs. Intends to strengthen the monopoly of the construction of alternate routes through the Caucasus and Turkey, bypassing Ukraine incident. The war in Georgia have thwarted Europe, competing Nabucco pipeline project that the European Union to supply the oil and gas from Central Asia, bypassing Russia. Cornered in a corner, Europe turned to sources of oil and gas are discovered in the past few years in the countries of northern Africa, mainly in Libya and Egypt. By investing significant financial resources are hoped to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Given the current situation, it is certain that Europe will soon drink from these sources. Even if the rebels win, it will be years before a project is re-appointed to his feet.
European torment does not stop there. The public in Japan saw a new Chernobyl disaster. Terrified of Berlin and the Parisians require a change in the energy exchange, and their governments have less room to maneuver. It is on your skin first felt one of the largest advocate use nuclear Angela Merkel, whose party shortly after the disaster lost regional elections. Perhaps even harder to bear the consequences of France that 80% of its energy produced from nuclear power plants, in addition to the Paris to Italy, most focused on the supply of oil from the north of Africa. Norwegian and Dutch gas has long been too expensive, and the alternative is less.
At the court of the new Russian Emperor
But the story has another dimension, beyond the political. Europe in 2000. was watched with satisfaction as energetic Vladimir Putin taking Russia from the aging and alcohol ailing Yeltsin. They saw him as an ally to an unstable giant on the north-eastern border of the EU to set up on their feet and bring him the old continent. The European Union believed that Putin will continue the path of approaching Europe and Russia in trade and political terms. Brussels beliefs have proved to be naive. Brutal showdown with the oligarchs and Putin's political opponents at home deprived of real competition. The ambitious economic plan that is supposed to raise the fallen colossus on feet it worked amazingly.
Earnings from energy products in Russia in ten years increased by six times, and external debt is due to an increase in oil prices is almost completely cleared. In addition to the people disillusioned with democracy offered a vision of Russia as a reborn world powers. Putin, in any case would not collect the crumbs that fall from the European table.
Right is the new face of Russian politics only began to show. At the International conference on security in Munich 2007th The glove thrown by refusing to accept American hegemony as the world order established after the Cold War. Only two years later, 2009. Europe has become aware that the Russians are not joking. Energy crisis between Ukraine and Russia in the middle of winter froze the European political scene. Distribution of gas is interrupted, and conflict resolution intervened and Angela Merkel. It became clear that Moscow is its energy monopoly that she knows used for political purposes.
Carrot for a European horse
Very quickly reacted to European and American business public by presenting information about the extent to which the Russian economy dependent on European investments, trying to create an atmosphere of balance. In Brussels, they are forging plans for alternative supply routes, but as we have seen the Nabucco pipeline was thwarted by the war in Georgia, a Libyan field will most likely remain buried in the whirlwind of the war against Gaddafi.
"The Russians would be easier to submit a hungry year, but Europeans cold one"- said Putin when he realized that Europe is saved. Yet it is clear that the Russian economy would not have survived longer trade crisis with Europe. Given that European leaders have a dose of hostility toward him temporarily withdrew into the shadows, and President Dmitry Medvedev made up of refinement whose style is much more acceptable to the Old Continent. Although The Economist and The Guardian suggest that there are already the most powerful rivalry between the Russians, it's probably not true. Likely that the Russian policy of sticks and carrots, and required two persons who will represent it. Medvedev is just a carrot for a European horse that Putin intends to ride more often.
For now, Moscow has its energy power for political purposes is used cautiously, one might say, in a pinch. The reason is complex lost the Cold War, but still sufficiently strong Russian economy based almost exclusively on the export of energy. Russia is aware that the U.S. is not ready for a longer confrontation with the world's centers of power, but time is on their side. Europe digs himself a grave, a Russian sword hanging over their heads.
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